Science - Published research


Testing efficacy of monthly forecast application in agrometeorology: Winter wheat phenology dynamic

Use of monthly weather forecast as input meteorological data for agrometeorological forecasting, crop modelling and plant protection can foster promising applications in agricultural production. Operational use of monthly or seasonal weather forecast can help farmers to optimize field operations (fertilizing, irrigation) and protection measures against plant diseases and pests by taking full advantage of monthly forecast information in predicting plant development, pest and disease risks and yield potentials few weeks in advance. It can help producers to obtain stable or higher yield with the same inputs and to minimise losses caused by weather. In Central and South-Eastern Europe ongoing climate change lead to shifts of crops phenology dynamics (i.e. in Serbia 4-8 weeks earlier in 2016 than in previous years) and brings this subject in the front of agronomy science and practice. Objective of this study is to test efficacy of monthly forecast in predicting phenology dynamics of different winter wheat varieties, using phenological model developed by Forecasting and Warning Service of Serbia in plant protection. For that purpose, historical monthly forecast for four months (March 1, 2005 - June 30, 2005) was assimilated from ECMWF MARS archive for 50 ensemble members and control run. Impact of different agroecological conditions is tested by using observed and forecasted data for two locations - Rimski Sancevi (Serbia) and Groß-Enzersdorf (Austria).
Key words: Phenology, Agrometeorology, Numerical weather prediction, Monthly weather forecast, Ensemble spread, Winter wheat

Naslov: Еfikasnost primene mesečne prognoze vremena u agrometeorologiji: Dinamika vegetacije ozime pšenice

Korišćenje mesečne prognoze vremena u funkciji ulaznih meteoroloških podataka u agrometeorološkim prognozama, modeliranju biljne proizvodnje (prognozi prinosa i dinamike vegetacije) i zaštiti bilja može podstaći primenu ove prognoze vremena u poljoprivredi. Operativna primena mesečne ili sezonske prognoze vremena može pomoći proizvođačima u optimalnoj primeni đubriva i navodnjavanju kao i primeni zaštitnih sredstava, korišćenjem prognozirane dinamike vegetacije biljke domaćina i prognoziranog prinosa nekoliko sedmica ili meseci unapred. Ovakve prognoze mogu pomoći proizvođačima u ostvarivanju stabilnih ili viših prinosa sa istim “inputima”, kao i u smanjenju šteta izazvanih nepovoljnim vremenskim prilikama. U Centralnoj i Jugoistočnoj Evropi efekti klimatskih promena dovode do značajnih pomeranja u odnosu na prosečne datume nastupanja fenoloških faza pojedinih ratarskih kultura (npr. u 2016. Je početak vegetacije ozime pšenice u nekim regionima bio 4-8 sedmica ranije) što ovaj problem stavlja u fokus agronomske nauke i prakse. Cilj ove studije je bio da testira efikasnost mesecne prognoze vremena u predviđanju dinamike vegetacije različitih sorti (ili hibrida?) ozime pšenice korišćenjem fenološkog modela koji je razvijen od strane stručnjaka Prognozno-izveštajne službe u zaštiti bilja Srbije.

Posted on: July 19, 2017, 12:38 pm



2017-07-19 12:38:41


Winter cover crops as green manure in a temperate region: the effect on nitrogen budget and yield of silage maize

Abstract. Winter cover crops may provide different environmental benefits in agricultural systems. The aim of this study
was to determine the effect of cover crops used as green manure on the soil nitrogen (N) budget and yield of silage maize
(Zea mays L.). A field experiment was conducted between 2011 and 2013 at three locations in Vojvodina Province, Serbia.
It compared common vetch (Vicia sativa L.), triticale ( Triticosecale Wittm. ex A. Camus), their mixture grown as cover
crops, N fertilisation at two doses (N1 and N2), and an unfertilised fallow as a control. Cover crops were sown in autumn
2011 and 2012 and were ploughed in during May of the year after which silage maize was sown. Results show that the ability
of cover crops to provide benefit for a subsequent crop is highly related to weather conditions, mainly precipitation. The
two years of the study experienced completely different weather conditions, showing two aspects of how cover crops can
affect subsequent crop yield and amount of N left in the soil. In 2012, the N budget was higher in all three cover crops at
all locations than N1 and the control because of unfavourable weather conditions for mineralisation of organic matter.
However, the cover crops had a negative effect on silage maize yield. In 2013 (an average year), theNbudget was significantly
higher after cover crops, and was followed by a higher yield of silage maize. Based on the 2-year average, the highest value
of apparent N remaining in the soil was recorded in the mixture treatment (288.13 kg N ha–1); treatments with vetch and
triticale had approximately equal values (272.17 and 272.71 kg N ha–1). The N fertilisation treatments and the control had
significantly lower average values of residual N.
Additional keywords: ARNS, legumes, silage corn.

Posted on: July 11, 2017, 12:58 pm



2017-07-11 12:58:29

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